Russisk fly på tokt over Finnmark og Forsvaret møtte russiske krigsfly utenfor norskekysten. Norske F16-fly observerte to russiske krigsfly utenfor norskekysten tirsdag morgen.

Dette er to overskrifter fra nrk.no nylig. I det siste har altså russiske fly vært nær ved å krenke norsk territorium. At russiske ubåter antagelig har krenket svensk territorium er en ikke usannsynlig teori som forklarer de krenkelsene som skjedde for noen få uker siden. Dette er i utgangspunktet relativt harmløst, men det som skjer er ikke tilfeldig. Disse nesten-krenkelsene har et formål; de skal teste beredskap. Derfor må de møtes med styrke. Disse tingene skjer i etterkant av at russiske styrker har gått mer alvorlig til verks andre steder: Krim, Ukraina.

Dette er klassiske tiltak i diktaturer (selv om Putin formelt er valgt) i indre krise: man vise «aktivitet» utad, dvs. man skaper en ytre fiende for å samle og motivere egen befolkning.

Og dette er forståelig fordi situasjonen i Russland er elendig.

Fra oilprice.com: Vladimir Putin has been on quite a roll for about a year now. But December 1, 2014, just might turn out to be the day the tide finally turned against him. Ever since Russia's annexation of Crimea in March sparked the worst East-West showdown since the Cold War, Moscow has enjoyed a clear asymmetrical advantage: it was prepared to use force to achieve its ends in Ukraine -- and perhaps elsewhere -- while the West was not.

But this week marked something of an inflection point where whatever short-term asymmetrical advantages Moscow enjoyed are now being eclipsed by its long-term structural weaknesses.

The Russian currency -- reeling from the combined effect of sanctions and falling energy prices -- experienced its sharpest one-day drop since the August 1998 financial crisis on December 1, falling below the psychologically important level of 50 to the dollar for the first time.

And then there was oil. The price of this backbone of the Russian economy has fallen 25 percent since the summer. On December 1, following OPEC's decision not to cut production, the price of Brent Crude, the world benchmark, dipped below $70 a barrel, a five-year low. And the slide is expected to continue.

Prior to the Ukraine crisis, Putin's Russia had indeed found something of a sweet spot. It was a respectable G8 member that was able to spread its influence by corrupting Western elites, stealthily buy up European energy infrastructure through shady shell companies, and flagrantly violate the EU's antimonopoly legislation.

It could even behave like a rogue occasionally, as in the August 2008 invasion of Georgia, and get off with barely a slap on the wrist.
But in Ukraine, Putin basically jumped the shark. By annexing Crimea he initiated the first forceful change of borders in Europe since World War II. And by manufacturing a pro-Moscow insurgency in Donbas, he effectively invaded Ukraine.

Once this happened -- and particularly after pro-Moscow separatists downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 -- it was no longer possible for Western leaders to continue to pretend that Russia is a respectable member of the international community. It became untenable to carry on with the charade that Moscow was a partner with which they could work. Instead, Russia became a problem they needed to confront.

Russia became a rogue state. And once it did, a crucial source of its strength began to melt away.

Western sanctions and the steady isolation of Russia from the world economy might not have been enough to contain Moscow in the short term. But, with an assist from falling energy prices, they are more than enough to cripple it in the long run.

The Russian government on December 2 acknowledged what has long been obvious, that the economy would slide into recession in 2015.

Official projections say it will contract by 0.8 percent while other estimates say it could shrink as much a 2 percent. Disposable incomes are expected to drop by 2.8 percent. Inflation this year is at 9 percent, and is projected to continue rising. And capital flight is forecast to reach $128 billion.

And on top of all that, Russian firms owe $700 billion to foreign banks and, due to sanctions, are largely blocked from any additional Western financing. The looming economic crunch "is a completely new reality" for Putin, economist Sergei Guriyev, who fled Russia last year, told "The New York Times. "He has always been lucky, and this time, he is not lucky," Guriyev added. As 2013 drew to a close, Putin appeared to be running circles around his Western counterparts. He managed to thwart U.S. air strikes against his ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He strong-armed Armenia -- and temporarily, Ukraine -- into abandoning plans for a free-trade pact with the European Union in favor of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union. Men nå er dette altså snudd på hodet.

Putins sammenbrudd har skjedd nokså raskt. Ved inngangen til 2014 hadde Russland den åttende største økonomien i verden. Den har nå krympet, og er omtrent på samme nivå som Spanias. Russland har også til en viss grad vært utstøtt fra det gode selskap (innen områder som finans) etter annekteringen av Krim, invasjonen av Ukraina, og nedskytningen av det sivile passasjerflyet MH17 (som Russland må ha vært innblandet i, selv om dette neppe var godkjent av Putin).

Putins «South Stream Pipeline» er kansellert, og denne var beregnet på å ytterligere kontrollere energitilførselen til Ukraina og Europa.

Enda en ydmykelse var at Frankrike kansellerte leveringen av to Mistral krigsskip til Russland pga. Når selv franskmennene velger å stå fast på noe, da er det klinkende klart hvilken vei vinden blåser!

Og som toppen på kransekaken: nå settes det i Ukraina opp plakater hvor Putin fremstilles som Hitler, og det selges toalettpapir med bilder av Putin. (Bilder kan sees på link nedenfor.)

Alt dette er en kolossal ydmykelse for Putin, og ledere som blir ydmyket varer ikke lenge i Russland

Hvordan står det så til med det militæret?

Nylig publiserte Strategy Page en analyse av det russiske militæret, og her er en oppsummering: The Russian military is seen as a crippled institution and one not likely to get better any time soon. With so many of the troops now one year conscripts, an increasing number of the best officers and NCOs get tired of coping with all the alcoholics, drug users, and petty criminals that are taken in just to make quotas. With the exodus of the best leaders, and the growing number of ill-trained and unreliable conscripts, the Russian military is more of a mirage than an effective combat (or even police) organization.

Det er blitt så ille for Russland og Putin at enkelte spår at han ikke vil sitte ved makten ett år fra nå. Slike spådommer slår ofte feil, men at Russland og Putin er i krise er opplagt. Og da må man være obs. Skadede bjørner er farlige, og det er da viktig å være på vakt og å være i stand til å forsvare seg.

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http://www.nrk.no/nordnytt/russisk-fly-pa-tokt-over-finnmark-1.12085829

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Putins-Luck-Runs-Out.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2858807/Inside-anti-Putin-mecca-...

http://www.france24.com/en/20141205-france-may-never-deliver-mistral-war...

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/20141202.aspx